Windows 8 coming in 2012?

October 25, 2010

Windows 8 coming in 2012?An apparent “leak” on Microsoft’s website in the Netherlands is pointing to a 2012 release for the next edition of Windows. That’s not exactly a shock timetable, but does suggest the company will need to make its mind up about any “risky” content soon.

The article on the Netherlands site, which was covering the first anniversary of Windows 7′s release, is reported to have originally noted (in the words of a Google translation: “Furthermore, Microsoft is of course the next version of Windows. But it will take about two years before Windows 8 on the market.”)

That line has now been removed, though it’s not known if that’s because higher-ups at Microsoft demanded its removal, or if the original writer simply made a mistake in listing the info.

Given previous Microsoft schedules (with the exception of the six years it somehow took to create Vista), 2012 is along the lines of most people’s expectations, so there is a good chance that rather than revealing a corporate secret, this is simply a Microsoft staffer making an assumption. If the timetable is indeed correct, we should be seeing a beta edition at some point next year, so the countdown is on for Microsoft to make fundamental decisions about how the new version of Windows will work.

That could be important given speculation about Steve Ballmer’s recent description of the next edition of Windows as Microsoft’s most risky project. (For some other ideas on what that claim could mean, check out Dave Parrack’s piece.)

Dailytech is floating the idea that the risk could be Windows 8 being an entirely cloud-based operating system. In theory that makes sense, particularly given its clear many users still running Vista are operating particularly old and outdated machines that could benefit from shifting the horsepower online, and that it’s far from clear that even by 2012 people will be ready to spend big on the latest hardware.

Still, I’m far from convinced. For one thing, even in two years’ time there’s likely to be a huge proportion of the potential Windows audience that either won’t or can’t rely on an internet connection to even be able to run an operating system. For another, although he departed amid a “job done” storyline, it’s difficult to believe Microsoft wouldn’t have persuaded Ray Ozzie to stay in his post if it really was about to embark on such a major exercise in cloud computing.



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