Windows Mobile – down but not out?
Microsoft’s mobile strategy is in trouble; that is something most industry watchers and consumers agree with. The question is whether it’s too late for Microsoft to get back in the game. Down but not out?
Windows Mobile use has dropped massively over the last year, with Apple OS on iPhone now the dominant operating system. Windows Mobile 6.5 was released and didn’t please anyone much. The already much-delayed Windows 7 is likely not to appear for another year or so. Which could be far too late for Microsoft to pull it back from the brink.
According to WSJ, Windows Mobile’s share of the worldwide smartphone market has dropped from 11.1 percent to 7.9 percent, a drop of 3.2 percent. Meanwhile, both Apple and RIM, manufacturer of Blackberry, saw massive gains. The new boy on the block, Google Android, rose from zero to 3.5 percent.
The problem, then, doesn’t look insurmountable, but the longer Microsoft dallies the more chance there is of it being too late to mount a comeback.
Microsoft is obviously busy beavering away on Windows Mobile 7, but that’ll have to be far superior to 6.5 to stand a chance of competing. It also won’t be enough to just fix the problems – Microsoft now has to innovate and go heavy on the features or it risks just building another also-ran which will have device makers cutting their ties with the company in order to cozy up to others, Google in particular.
Microsoft could call it a day, cull Windows Mobile, and get out of Dodge. But that would be corporate suicide seeing as Mobile is where the future clearly lies. All I can think is Windows Mobile 7 needs to be released ASAP, and then Microsoft really needs to start again, building a Mobile strategy from scratch, and an operating system to match.
It then has to hope Apple, RIM, and Google slip up.
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December 29th, 2009
Restating the obvious.
Information value of this article = zero.
December 30th, 2009
The article has value by allowing readers to discuss it, unlike the original WSJ article that doesn’t, and is for subscribers only.
The current Windows Mobile 6.x is a dead end. I see no possibility of it reviving. Platforms live or die depending on how lively their software developer ecosystem is. The software developers have deserted Windows Mobile, to go to Android and iPhone.
Microsoft needs to make some radical moves. It needs to embrace open-source, as it has shown it cannot create the whole proprietary widget on its own, and get it to market in any timely manner.
I don’t even recommend Windows Mobile for business users any more, due to the lack of new software development, and handset OEMs leaving the platform.
The Android and iPhone platforms are doing very well.
December 30th, 2009
> Windows Mobile’s share of the worldwide smartphone
> market has dropped from 11.1 percent to 7.9 percent,
> a huge drop of 2.2 percent.
A few points worth mentioning:
1) Going from 11.1% share to 7.9% share is a drop of 3.2%…not, as you stated, 2.2%.
2) Back in the days when writers had editors who knew what the heck they were doing, the rules of reportage called for restatement of the net loss as a percentage (of the previous figure), rather than merely as an apparent, mathematical difference. So, let’s note that Microsoft’s market-share fell by ~28.8% (3.2 divided by 11.1) in just three months.
3) Seems to me, just about anyone would agree that 28.8% is a “huge drop”, especially quarter over quarter. On the other hand, per se, “2.2%” (or even 3.2%) isn’t “huge”. See how that works?
4) Also, let’s note that the (corrected) 3.2% figure just happens to be nearly identical to the gains shown by Google’s Android platform, during the same period (3.5%). My, but it’s small world.
December 30th, 2009
I agree with your analysis Justa Notherguy. The results suggests a ~28.8% loss market share by MS, which is huge in any industry and especially in the IT related industries.
Poor results for Zune, loss of market share by Windows Mobile, poor results for Bing etc etc etc show one thing – that in a non-monopolised or fair an equal market, MS cannot compete! It only retains 90% of the OS market because of the habit of people to use Windows, not because Windows is necessarily the “best” OS. There are some very tough times coming for MS over the next few years.
January 3rd, 2010
I disagree Peter. How is the OS market not “fair”? Microsoft gets ripped for abusing that monopoly but they did nothing but wrong to gain that market not matter what nonsense you hear. Even Steve Jobs admits the OS wars are over and MS won fair and square. Moving on to Zune, I would say it was a failure until the HD release. Yes, I know it does not sell as much as the IPod touch but you could say the same for Mac OS vs Windows. It doesn’t have to gain unusually high market share to be a success. MS search was miserable until Bing so I can’t see how you describe the first search engine it years not named Google to gain market share is “poor” … MS just went throug its worst 2 or 3 years and still rakes in over 50 billion in revenue and double digit billions in profit. They have a great product in Win 7, they continue to gain share in the server space, they continue to gain share in the database space, they have the most used developer IDE, they completely dominate the office suite market, they have the #2 gaming console and the list goes on and on. Times look pretty good of MS where I sit.
January 3rd, 2010
“Apple OS on iPhone now the dominant operating system”
What? That’s just plain wrong. The dominant operating system is still Symbian (50.3%), followed by Blackberry (20.9%). iPhone comes in third with 13.7%.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mobile_operating_system
And by the way, I agree that Windows Mobile is dead. By the time WinMo 7 arrives, it’ll have an even smaller market share (I bet it’ll even have been surpassed by Android) and will be irrelevant to developers. Which means a slow and painful death for those that are betting all their money on it.
January 3rd, 2010
John: you are missing a basic point: Windows and Office lost 30% revenue in the last two quarters. And, despite having products in many fronts, Windows and Office account for 90% of *all* Microsoft revenue. If this trend continues, you can bet Microsoft will have to cut R&D on non-profitable fronts
The online services division, for example, which includes Hotmail, Msn, Bing etc, have been consistently losing about US$300-500 million per quarter, for years. The hardware division is not profitable. Etc.
The problem for Microsoft is to keep the Windows/Office margins high, so that it can burn money on new areas, even if not profitable for a decade (example: Xbox). But Windows and Office margins are in decline (see last Microsoft quarters), and all things say that this will become worst in the next years. This also explains the Microsoft desperation to get well positioned in the web search game: OS is more and more a commodity and there’s a move of applications to the web (like or not, it is a trend).
Microsoft is desperately looking for a new cash cow.
January 3rd, 2010
As an heavy user of Windows Mobile 6, I recently purchased an iTouch. Let me tell you – there is no comparison! My iTouch costs about half of what my iPaq did, the interface is light years ahead of WM and there are way more apps for the iTouch/iPhone and at MUCH cheaper prices. I don’t see how WM can compete and I believe that unless MS does something drastic (like re-write WM), it will die soon enough. I’ve always been a Windows person (desktop and mobile), but the iPhone/iTouch is a way better product at a lower price.
January 3rd, 2010
yeah, Vista did not help out MS too much in that regard. I’ve been stubborn in sticking with MS OS’s and Office suites. But recently I did decide to try Open Office, since it was free, and found out it does everything I need. No doubt MS Office has billions of features, but I have no need for them, so why should I be paying for them.
Who knows, someday I may free myself from Windows tyranny and actually try out alternate OS’s….
January 5th, 2010
When I bought my windows mobile phone (HTC Touch Pro) through US Cellular, I had to argue with the sales staff. They were pushing Blackberries hard. They were adiment that Windows Mobile phone had worse reception and batteries did not last long.
Because of my previuos research I bought the Touch Pro anyway.
With that type of sales and marketing at the retail end, no wonder market share dropped.