Why the netbook market share figures don’t add up
Windows and Linux have a combined netbook market share of 125 percent. Or at least that’s the message if you don’t dig deeply into rival claims made this week.
There are numerous reports that Linux has now achieved a 32 percent share of the netbook market, but Microsoft has supposedly hit back by claiming it has a 93 percent share. There are several reasons for the apparent disparity, the most prominent being that they aren’t like-for-like comparisons.
The Linux figure comes from ABI Research but is based on shipments for 2009. The Microsoft figure is for all machines currently in use. It’s perfectly feasible that both could be correct, which would suggest that Linux will increase its overall market share over time if this year’s trends continue.
Such figures are always likely to be disputed as there’s no clear definition of what a netbook is. Indeed, Microsoft prefers the term “small notebook” and was even accused of taking liberties about the way it decided which machines fit that category when setting licensing rates for Windows 7.
Jeff Orr of ABI notes that U.S. figures may give a misleading impression of how the two systems are performing on netbooks, with Linux performing much better in developing markets where cost is a particularly important issue.
He also says his 32 percent figure may be an understatement as he hasn’t included machines where the user has replaced Windows with Linux themselves. He’s also left out dual-boot machines which come with both systems installed, but with Windows as the default option.
Of course, it’s worth remembering that in the big picture, the significance of netbook market shares depends on how well netbooks perform overall. At the moment something in the region of one in ten PCs sold worldwide are netbooks meaning that, while losing netbook sales isn’t a good sign, Microsoft would still dominate the PC market even if it never sold another netbook.
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December 9th, 2009
I’m a Linux fan, but I’m realistic. Fact is go to any “brick and mortar” stores and how many Linux machines do you see in each store?
A year ago, Micro Center and Best Buy were selling them and Walmart did even earlier. I haven’t seen any, except a Ubuntu desktop machine Micro Center is or was closing out recently.
However, if one looks online. One can find a fair amount of sources for Linux netbooks (and desktops). The amount of people trying Linux, either with a Live CD, “Dual Boot” or as a full install has been steadily increasing. A simple look in the increase in posts and memberships in the many Linux forums seems to support this.
In other areas the use of Linux rises even more as there “open source mandates” in some countries and in particular,… school systems looking to save money on huge licensing fees.
I would wish Linux did have a 32% market share in the netbook arena. That could change with the release of Chrome OS on Netbooks next year.
Whatever the number, Linux is still up in usage and will continue to rise even further.
December 9th, 2009
Are the people who said Dewey would become president the same people who say that MS has a 92 percent market share? Between home and work we have about 40 systems. Only two run Microsoft and they mostly go unused. Most of the systems we have are were former mswindows boxes. Let’s see 38/40 = 95% Linux has a 95 percent share for us. That market research company that MS touts seems to need to redo their work.
December 9th, 2009
So…say for the sake of argument that Microsoft has a 92% market share in net books. So then Microsoft admits that Linux has a 8 % share…(at least).
Surely this is significant as many MSFT bloggers and astroturfers often tout Linux’ “never changing” “0.9% share. I wonder what the astroturfers will say now?
More important, that since Mac does not make net books, this makes Linux its biggest competitor in this category.
Linux, as some are aware…already commands a huge presence in the server sector and even on Wall Street.
I don’t care what Microsoft quotes, they will put their “best spin” on the “numbers”…it does not mean that it is entirely accurate.
Regardless if Linux has 32% share or Microsoft has a 92% share.
The title of this article should be changed to . “Linux is Microsoft’s biggest competitor”
December 9th, 2009
Another problem is that it is difficult to assess market share when many computers have more than one OS installed. If a netbook or notebook has both Windows and Linux installed, how do you assess market share? It is hard to believe that Linux has 32%, but given the inability to believe anything whatsoever from MS, it is equally difficult to believe that they have 92%.
December 9th, 2009
Linux has a big share of Web-servers, otherwise not so much. It’s a pity the Linux community got so Ubuntutized and intent on fighting for desktop scraps with Apple.
The recent financial climate should have seen CEOs and CFOs embracing Linux and BSD and other Open Source solutions. Just replacing some file servers with Samba would have been huge.
After the Vista fiasco, the headcount blood letting and downsizing failed to move the needle the title should have been “Microsoft has no real competition”.
December 10th, 2009
davi, your situation is by far more the exception than the norm. My work has at least 18,000 workstations globally. I’m not aware of any Linux machines and only a sparse handful of Macs. Even amongst our 700+ servers the only Linux systems are vendor-supplied appliances.
We run XP on the desktop with a smattering of Vista. Next year will probably see a mass migration to Win7.
Also, from a license perspective MS will count all of your former Windows systems even if they were migrated to Linux. If you buy a machine with Windows, MS will count the license as an installation even if you reformat.