Analysts still split over Windows 7’s short-term future
Windows 7 will get off to a flying start as buyers snap up new computers in the fall. Or, put another way, Windows 7 will struggle at first as buyers take a piecemeal approach to upgrading.
Those are the latest messages coming from industry analysts – the people who are highly paid for making forecasts based on common sense. Their advice may not be sophisticated, but it is influential, particularly with the people who decide whether or not to put investor money into Microsoft.
Sandeep Aggarwal of Collins Stewart has made the headlines after telling the Associated Press he has met “industry contacts” and is now “incrementally more positive on Microsoft and the stabilization in PC shipment trends.”
And the basis for this forecast? Well, lots of people are buying smaller and cheaper computers such as netbooks. That and sales will probably be up in the fall because people have been waiting for Windows 7. Oh, and the system is getting some good reviews.
A slightly more thought-out analysis comes from Directions on Microsoft, which bills itself as the only analyst firm dedicated to the software giant’s activities. Its vice-president Michael Cherry (pictured) says that a fundamental “pent-up demand” for Windows 7 looks certain to be thwarted by the state of the economy, making it much more likely firms will simply add the system on a machine-by-machine basis when they buy new hardware.
He also notes that it’s difficult to make precise predictions simply because there are so many pricing offers and deals with limited timescales and it’s uncertain how many firms will figure out when it the best time to buy.
Meanwhile TechNewsWorld writer Chris Maxcer has a different take on the effects of Windows 7. Though a Mac devotee, he’s hoping it lives up to the early reviews on the grounds that a strong Windows will push Apple to keep on improving its own software.
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August 30th, 2009
The success of Windows 7 largely depends on the price they charge for an upgrade. If it stays around the £70 mark (I’m a UK user… I don’t know what would be acceptable in the US, $70 or less, perhaps?), they’ll sell a lot of them. But many Vista users will resent paying £160 for an upgrade they should be paying a lot less for not long after their initial investment in their PC. That’s how I am with the Vista PC in my house – I’m loath to pay that much for the new operating system!
If they keep it at the pre-order price, many people will be tempted.
Still not a patch on Apple upgrades – I’m paying £39 for a five license copy of Snow Leopard to upgrade Macs belonging to my household and those of a couple of family and friends. When you start factoring in upgrades, maybe Macs aren’t quite so expensive in the long run *ducks and runs for cover as arguments begin to explode*
No, I made that point not to big up the Mac, but to beg the question – why does Microsoft charge so much for upgrades when a company who has a much smaller pool of potential upgraders can afford to charge so little? Seems a little bit like a rip off to me in all honesty.