What a shocker: Windows 7 download limit already dropped

Sometimes when we make a cynical suggestion or prediction here at BLORGE, we end up looking foolish. But sometimes it turns out our snarky suggestions may even be an understatement.

Last Thursday I noted Microsoft had placed a 2.5 million download limit on the beta edition of Windows 7, commenting:

Unless the accountants are ruling the roost and insisting on limiting server loads, chances are the firm picked an artificial limit. It’s probably chosen in the hope of it being high enough to sound impressive, but low enough that it will be hit, allowing Microsoft to publicize unprecedented demand.

Well, it turns out there wasn’t even any need to hit the limit. To little surprise, there was indeed an unforeseen “enormous surge in demand”, to the point that Microsoft actually put downloads on hold on Friday to allow them to add more servers. The downloads are now back online, and Microsoft says it’s dropping the 2.5 million download limit for the next two weeks, meaning people can continue downloading it even if the limit is passed.

What’s really clever about this sequence of announcements is that Microsoft doesn’t actually say anywhere that 2.5 million people have downloaded the product. In fact it specifically states that that figure hasn’t been reached yet. But many media outlets today seem to be fooled into thinking “2.5 million limit + servers overloaded + limit removed = 2.5 million downloads already”.

It’s clever because Microsoft doesn’t have to lie – it just lets other people jump to the wrong conclusions. But the story simply doesn’t stand up to common sense: adding extra servers to cope with demand isn’t a solution when you then allow demand to become potentially infinite. Surely putting a time limit instead of a limit of numbers will just increase server strain?

In any case, ‘overloaded servers’ is no indication of demand whatsoever: it just shows the servers used weren’t sufficient. Just look at niche sites which suddenly become popular because of a mention of sites such as Digg or Slashdot: you’ll hear about ‘Web sites crashing’ within hours, but that’s often because they simply aren’t set up to cope with spikes in traffic, not because they are suddenly more popular than Google.com.

And if the demand for the beta really did drastically exceed Microsoft’s expectations, what does that say about the world’s largest software firm’s ability to manage and handle Web traffic?

Conceivably the problem may be less to do with how many people wanted a download and more about how many wanted it at the same precise moment. But if there was any prospect of that being a problem, surely Microsoft would have thought ahead and devised a solution such as asking would-be downloaders to register (complete with the e-mail addresses marketing departments love so much) and sending out download links on a first-come first-served basis to manage daily demand.

Public image aside, there’s also a major question about whether having 2.5 million (or more) downloads would even be desirable. While user feedback is great, and the entire purpose of a beta, the more people you have downloading the greater the chance of it falling into the hands of people who really don’t know what they are doing. And even if any problems which result are entirely the fault of the user, stories such as “I downloaded Windows 7 and now my computer is ruined” will do damage.

• Microsoft drops Windows 7 Starter edition’s 3-apps limit
• Free Microsoft Security Essentials available for download
• With Windows 7, Vista may not be worth fixing
• Small businesses face Windows 7 upgrade limit while Japan ’sells out’ half-price deal
• Vista SP1 now available for download